Stock Market Frenzy, Real Estate Booms!
Recently, netizens have been persistently asking a question: What is the purpose of this round of economic stimulus? Is it the beginning of a new cycle in China's economy, or a passive response strategy? Or, to put it simply, will the stock market start a long bull run? If so, why is it bullish?
The answer is actually quite clear. The scale of this round is unprecedented, far exceeding the 4 trillion yuan of the past. Why are we no longer afraid of the negative effects of 4 trillion yuan? Yesterday's press conference by the Ministry of Finance has already told you the answer.
Firstly, it is important to reiterate the most important principle: the world is complex and changeable, and as the second-largest economy, we have the power to influence the main line of global development. Therefore, the most important thing is to see the overall trend, rather than focusing on micro-level technical analysis.
The surge in Chinese assets this time started with the stock and real estate markets.
The stock market began to take off on September 24th with the financial policy, and before the long holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to over 3,300 points. After the holiday, on October 8th, it opened at over 3,600 points with a daily limit up, and although there have been several adjustments, it is still above 3,200 points.
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The real estate market also started with the new policy on September 24th. Before the long holiday, the four major first-tier cities quickly adjusted their policies, especially Guangzhou, which completely lifted the purchase restrictions. During the holiday, the number of visits and transactions in Guangzhou and Shenzhen's real estate market began to surge, and there were increases of varying degrees in Beijing and Shanghai.
We said the other day that China, with just a few policies, quickly raised the prices of core assets, something that few countries in the world can do. This fully demonstrates the solidity of our economic foundation and the strength of our economy.
Even if we only look at this point, we should not undervalue ourselves, even though we have faced challenges in recent years.
In recent years, many experts have said that our markets have various restrictions. If we completely open up like the West, it would not be the same as it is now, nor would the prices be the same.
There are too many people in China, and the issues are very complex. We hope to have a healthy and balanced economy and that most people can live a good life.So, currently, the entire China is severely underestimated, which represents a drastic revaluation of Chinese assets and labor value. Soon, the whole of China will become extremely valuable.
This kind of value is relative to the entire world, not simply meaning that things become very expensive.
For instance, as some people say, in the coming decades, Beijing will become the center of the world, so don't be surprised at how expensive Beijing's real estate will become.
Furthermore, there are a few places that impose tariffs on our electric vehicles, essentially believing that our vehicles should be worth more money.
It is only against this backdrop that significant changes that can affect the entire world can occur within just half a month.
So, why do many people still lack confidence and do not believe? There are two very important questions here.
First, why now? Or simply ask why China is capable now, while the 4 trillion of that year brought many negative effects?
Second, is this time for real, or is it a false prosperity? Is it a carnival or a trap?
The answer is clear, the time has come, and there is no falsehood. Since 2008, the entire China has undergone earth-shaking changes.
The 4 trillion of 2008 may not seem like much now, but at that time, the GDP was only 32 trillion, and 4 trillion was equivalent to 12.5% of the GDP. If calculated proportionally to the 126 trillion GDP in 2023, it would be close to 16 trillion.Additionally, what era was 2008? The international financial crisis erupted, China's economic growth slowed down, exports saw negative growth, a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns, and the economy faced the risk of a hard landing.
There was an important background to this: we were still in the last cycle of overcapacity, and it was in the mid-to-low-end industries where a large amount of backward capacity was accumulated, and the overall social efficiency was not high.
The supply-side reform and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry that began in 2015 completely changed this situation. Currently, exports have more than 80% in mid-to-high-end manufacturing, and overcapacity is no longer in the uncompetitive mid-to-low-end manufacturing but in the obviously advantageous mid-to-high-end products.
At the same time, the domestic market consumption level in 2008 was not high, and the scale was not large. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2008 was only 11 trillion, and the economy was heavily dependent on exports. According to Mr. Huang Qifan, the proportion of imports and exports in GDP was more than 65%, which was mainly based on external circulation.
In 2023, China's imports and exports accounted for 33% of GDP, and the domestic market has become very large, already the world's second-largest domestic demand market.
Therefore, in 2024, the basic situation of China's economy has changed and become very competitive. At this time, no matter how to stimulate the economy, there is a large domestic market to protect, and it can quickly occupy more global markets.
Made in China is too powerful, and the Chinese market is also very large, which is the fundamental reason why the United States and the West are very afraid.
This is the confidence of this large-scale stimulus. We say money, money, goods and currency are bound together. As long as Chinese goods are popular worldwide, there is no need to worry about how the US dollar will toss.
Therefore, from the financial sector's joint action on September 24, to the high-level meeting on September 26, and then to the National Development and Reform Commission on October 8 and the Ministry of Finance on October 12, everything has been clear.
Everything in the world is cruel, and the era will not say goodbye to anyone who is eliminated, and the powerful United States is the same.Yesterday, I told an online friend that we believe, but you don't have to. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, those who chose to believe have become wealthy; those who didn't believe, many are still the same as before.
The era of China has truly arrived.
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