Fundamentals:

On Monday (October 14th), silver fluctuated and fell in the Asian market before rebounding. Currently, it is affected by the escalation of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Investors should pay attention to the short positions in silver after it bears pressure. This week, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and the US September retail sales data will be released, which require close attention from investors. In the United States, the September producer prices were unexpectedly flat month-on-month, and consumer confidence in October declined. The September producer price index (PPI) was unexpectedly flat month-on-month, with a slight increase in service prices offset by a decrease in commodity prices, suggesting that the inflation outlook remains favorable, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month. Data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the September PPI was unexpectedly flat month-on-month, while Thursday's data showed that the September consumer price index (CPI) rose slightly more than expected. However, some components of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose slightly, suggesting that core inflation in September will climb. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the August final demand PPI month-on-month increase was confirmed at 0.2%. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. The September consumer price increase was slightly higher than expected. Most economists do not consider the rebound in inflation to be a sign that price pressures are intensifying again. Housing inflation cooled significantly in September. Nevertheless, high prices continue to affect consumers' views on the economy. A survey released by the University of Michigan last Friday showed that the initial value of the October consumer confidence index fell to 68.9, with economists predicting 70.8, and the September final value was 70.1.

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Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose from 2.7% in September to 2.9%. The PPI data showed that after wholesale service prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, they rose another 0.2% in September. Among them, deposit service prices increased by 3.0%. The prices of machinery and vehicle wholesale, furniture retail, desktop and portable device application software publishing, and clothing wholesale also increased. After the release of the PPI and CPI data, economists estimated that the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, which could be rounded up to 0.3%, with an increase of 0.1% in August.

US Treasury yields fell last Friday, following data showing that producer prices were flat month-on-month, and the consumer confidence report kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates at the next monetary policy meeting. The latest US economic data is "creating confusion and will lead to doubts about the Federal Reserve's future actions."

Spot gold is reported at $2,655 per ounce;

Spot silver is reported at 31.28 yuan per ounce;

Daily financial market hotspots

21:00 2026 Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari participates in a panel discussion.21:00 Russia's Foreign Trade in August (billion USD)

23:00 US September New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation (%)

US Dollar Index: The chart indicates that the current US dollar index is in a consolidating rebound trend. Pay attention to the resistance level at 107.00.

Trend Judgment

The current silver market is in a price consolidation trend. It is possible to set up long positions at support levels and short positions at resistance levels.

US Dollar Index: The chart shows that the current US dollar index is in a consolidating downtrend. Pay attention to the resistance level at 107.00.

1. The silver technical indicator avg shows that the current K-line is running near the lower rail, with the hourly chart cycle indicating a price consolidation trend, and the lower support at 30.18.

2. The MACD chart shows the moving average crossing with an arrow pointing downward, indicating that consolidation is the main direction for the MACD Asian session. The energy column shows that the wave peak is flat and above the energy column 0-axis with decreasing energy. Market activity has weakened, and trading should be cautious with reference to low long and high short light positions.

Trend Logic

In a consolidating trend, short positions are entered at resistance levels, long positions are entered near support levels or upon resistance breakdown, and short positions are entered upon support breakdown, with light positions, following the trend, and setting stop-loss orders.