Fundamentals:

In the early Asian market on Friday (October 11th), spot gold edged higher, currently trading at $2,633.76 per ounce, with a gain of about 0.16%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose on Thursday. As the U.S. CPI data was released, gold prices once fell to around $2,602 per ounce. However, the market quickly noticed the poor performance of the initial jobless claims data, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November increased. Gold prices quickly rebounded above $2,620 and then fluctuated and rose, closing at $2,629.97 per ounce, with a gain of about 0.86%, ending the previous six trading days of correction.

U.S. consumer prices in September rose slightly more than expected, but the year-on-year increase was the smallest in three and a half years. Another report showed that the number of initial jobless claims increased to 258,000 in the week ending October 5th, the highest since August 2023, while the expectation was 230,000. The CPI report did not bring too many surprises, and the employment data showed a weak trend, which helped the Federal Reserve's view on the rate cut regularity for gold. The market currently believes that there is an 89% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, up from 76% before the data was released. Investors' focus will turn to Friday's U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data to learn more about rate cuts.

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The intensification of geopolitical events and strong demand led by central banks are other favorable catalysts for gold. Israel's plan to strike Iran has intensified concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East. This factor attracts safe-haven buying and supports gold prices at lower levels. Investors need to continue to pay attention to geopolitical news this trading day, focus on the U.S. September PPI data and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October, pay attention to China's M2, social financing scale, and other monetary data, and continue to pay attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

Another report from the Department of Labor showed that affected by weather factors and strikes, the number of people applying for state government unemployment benefits increased by 33,000 in the week ending October 5th, adjusted for seasonal factors to 258,000, the highest level since early August 2023, and the increase was the largest since July 2021. Economists had previously predicted that the number of claims for the most recent week would be 230,000.

The number of initial jobless claims for the previous week increased by 53,570 to 234,780. The unemployment benefits report also showed that the number of continuing jobless claims, which measures hiring conditions, increased by 42,000 in the week ending September 28th, adjusted for seasonal factors to 1.861 million. Several Federal Reserve policymakers hinted at continued rate cuts, and several Federal Reserve policymakers said on Thursday that inflation is slowly cooling down, and the U.S. job market remains strong but there is a risk of deterioration, which gives the green light for further rate cuts in the coming months. However, one policymaker suggested that it might be necessary to hold off in November.

Spot gold is reported at $2,645 per ounce;

Spot silver is reported at $31.87 per ounce;

Hot topics in the financial market for the day2:00 PM Germany September CPI Year-over-Year Final Rate (%)

2:00 PM UK August GDP Monthly Rate (%)

2:00 PM UK August Industrial Production Monthly Rate (%)

8:30 PM US September PPI Year-over-Year Rate (%)

US Dollar Index: The chart indicates that the current US dollar index is in a consolidating rebound phase. Pay attention to the resistance level at 106.00.

Trend Judgment

The current gold market is in a price consolidation phase. It is possible to set up long positions at support levels and short positions at resistance levels.

US Dollar Index: The chart shows that the current US dollar index is in a consolidating downtrend. Focus on the resistance level at 105.00.

1. Gold technical indicators avg show that the current K-line is running near the lower rail, with the hourly chart cycle indicating a price consolidation phase, with support near 2600 (lower rail) and resistance near 2630.

2. The MACD chart shows intersecting moving averages with upward arrows, indicating that consolidation is the main direction for the MACD Asian session. The energy column shows flat peaks and is below the energy column's 0-axis with decreasing energy. Market activity has weakened, and trading should be cautious, with reference to light positions for long and short operations at lower levels.Trend Logic

In a consolidating market, short positions are taken near resistance levels, and long positions are entered near support levels or upon breaking through resistance. Short positions are entered upon breaking through support levels. Maintain a light position, follow the trend, and set stop-loss orders.